The Mathematical Model for Why Snake Oil Sells

[tcmgpt13]

Why snake oil cures sell

By Chris Lee | Last updated April 16, 2009 1:26 PM

"One of the questions I find most curious is "why do people continue to do or use things that patently don't work?" There are, of course, societal issues at work when a person is choosing how to respond to events; however, a naive view would be that as experience accumulates, more effective responses will be acquired.
This is clearly not true in the case of alternative medicine. Many alternative treatments, from homeopathy to a variety of herbal remedies, have been shown to be ineffective—yet they persist, and, in many cases, have become big business. To understand why failure can be successful, a group of researchers have put together a mathematical model that accounts for how treatment decisions spread. This has allowed them to show that ineffective treatments are often more successful in society than efficacious alternatives.

The model is based on the extremely simple idea that, if I am sick, I will choose some action to try and make myself better. This action may or may not be efficacious, but regardless of that, I will have, in effect, demonstrated that treatment to my associates. Of course, I will likely recover from illness whether or not the treatment works. So, independent of the impact of the treatment, some of my associates may choose to use it, since they're aware that I did and am now well.

There are other details considered in the model, as well. For instance, treatment may be abandoned, illnesses can either be single events (e.g., chicken pox) or recurring events, and I may continue to demonstrate a treatment after recovery. Stir this in with a numerical value for the efficacy of the treatment—a scale that encompasses treatments that actually hurt recovery through those that are ineffective and those that are effective—and one can see how a given treatment regime can spread through social learning.

The most ironic finding is that a very effective treatment has only a very short demonstration period, so it's very unlikely to spread unless the user continues to demonstrate it after they recover. In fact, if treatment abandonment rates are sufficiently low, harmful practices are the most effective in spreading through a population.

Once recurring illnesses are taken into account, the ground begins to shift towards more efficacious treatments. However, all of the data shows a broad local maxima of spread located near an efficacy of zero (e.g., ineffective treatment), meaning that an effective treatment actually needs to be pretty good before it can spread.

There are, of course, other reasons for refusing to use an effective treatment. For instance, Africa, long exploited by the west, has an understandable mistrust of western practices. But this is certainly not true in the west, where, for the most part, effective treatment regimes don't have cultural baggage associated with them. Nevertheless, large portions of society have turned to various forms of snake oil for treatment, which this model goes some way towards explaining.

It also helps me understand why the meme of vaccine damage has spread. There are literally no demonstrators for the effectiveness of vaccination, making social learning difficult.
PloS One, 2009, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0005192"

Since at times we are tempted with promises of "quick cures" for our illness I thought this was an interesting article to post here. I am not saying that herbs and other alternative treatments do not help us feel better, but I would say beware of those people who claim their herbs or potions will cure Morgellons without giving proof of a cure. Testimonials that something works is not sufficient evidence to claim a cure for a disease which is so far has proven extremely tough to treat adequately.

Always be wary if someone has a financial interest for claiming they have a cure as quite often they are selling the product directly to the public or are part of an MLM company who stands to profit from selling whatever it is they claim is a "cure." There is a lot of money to be made in the alternative field, despite the fact that many who sell these products claim otherwise. In fact, quite often they will tell you they are not making money at all as they are just buying it as a distributor for themselves and a friend, but no one else except now you as a special favor. See how easy it becomes to sell snake oil or cures?

[Tootsie]

Yes TCM its disheartening to know people claim cures when they are not and even more upsetting knowing people deliberately lie and make money off us because so many are desperate to get well.

Theres also the placebo effect that works in their favor . Such is the power of the mind alone !
placebo effect

[tcmgpt13]

I agree Tootsie, the placebo effect is very potent when it comes snake oil "cures." It seems an ancient Chinese remedy brought to California by the Chinese during Gold Rush days played a minor role in why fake remedies are called by this name. It turns out Clark Stanley aka "The Rattlesnake King" got his idea for making a "snake oil" from Chinese immigrants. Only Stanley's remedy had no snake oil in it at all. That was a totally fake claim. It sounds like killing one snake in front of the unwary and naive crowds at the World's Exposition in Chicago in 1893 made a great show however:

Why are snake-oil remedies so called?

By The Gazette (Montreal)February 23, 2008


It must have been quite a sight at the World's Exposition in Chicago in 1893. Clark Stanley, better known as The Rattlesnake King, reached into a sack, plucked out a snake, slit it open and plunged it into boiling water. When the fat rose to the top, he skimmed it off and used it on the spot to create "Stanley's Snake Oil," a liniment that was immediately snapped up by the throng that had gathered to watch the spectacle.

Little wonder. After all, Stanley had proclaimed that the liniment would cure rheumatism, neuralgia, sciatica, lumbago, sore throat, frostbite, even toothache.

It wasn't too hard to convince the onlookers about the wonders of the liniment, particularly when it came to arthritis. All Stanley had to do was point out that snakes obviously did not suffer from this condition and seemed well lubricated internally. The crowd lapped up the hype and shelled out the money. And many claimed immediate relief from their pain.
Could there have been something to this remedy? Maybe. But if it offered any relief, it wasn't due to any rattlesnake oil. It seems the snake act was only for show, and the liniment that was actually sold had been previously prepared. And not from snakes! Chemical analysis of a surviving sample revealed a mixture of mineral oil, beef fat, turpentine, camphor and red pepper. As it turns out, both camphor and capsaicin, the latter found in red pepper, do have some pain-killing effect when rubbed on aching joints. But the most effective ingredient in Stanley's snake oil was a good dose of placebo.

Actually, Clark Stanley didn't come up with the idea of snake oil as a remedy. That notion can be credited to the ancient Chinese who rubbed the oil on aching joints and claimed relief. Stanley probably heard about the remedy from Chinese immigrants who had come to America to seek their fortune. Many found jobs building railroads, and could well have used snake oil they had brought along to help deal with the backbreaking work.
Chinese snake oil, though, was certainly not made from rattlesnakes.
Traditionally, the oil was extracted from the fat sack of the Erabu sea snake. And that makes things interesting. As it turns out, sea snakes, like fish, are rich in omega-3 fats. Being cold-blooded animals, they have to be equipped with fats that don't harden in cold water, and omega-3 fats fit the bill. Erabu sea snakes actually are even richer in omega-3 fats than salmon, a popular source of these fats. We've heard a great deal about omega-3 fats in recent years, including their potential benefits in improving brain function, in reducing the risk of heart attacks, in alleviating depression and even in helping with arthritis.

Ahh, the arthritis. There really may be a connection here. Omega-3 fats are the body's precursors to certain prostaglandins that are known to have anti-inflammatory effects. So Chinese snake oil might actually have a beneficial effect. If you ingest it! But rattlesnake oil contains very little omega-3 fat, so that even if Stanley's liniment had some rattlesnake oil, it wouldn't have been much use even if people swallowed it. But of course all Stanley asked them to swallow was the hype. This huckster may not have done much for his customers' health, but he did leave us with a legacy. Thanks to him, we use the term "snake oil" for ineffective remedies. And some of today's snake oils make Stanley's product look respectable.
Wild Earth Animal Essences is a case in point. Just picture this scene. Daniel Mapel, a "spiritual psychologist," walks to a clearing in the Virginia woods and places a small bowl of water from a nearby stream on the ground. He then begins to walk in a large circle around the bowl, meditating and invoking the spirit of an animal. I don't quite understand how one attracts animal spirits but apparently it involves tracing out smaller and smaller circles while mentally asking the animal to share its gifts with humankind. By the time he reaches the centre of the circle, Mapel claims, he and the animal are one. Whatever that means.
At this time, he says, the energy of the animal is imparted to the bowl of water. This water is then formulated into essences that are sold as "vibrational remedies." I kid you not. Each of these, according to Mapel, contains the energetic imprint of the animal from which it is derived. He reassures us that no animals were captured or harmed to develop these products. Phew! I'm relieved to know that no animal has noted the theft of its spirit.

Oh yes, along with the spiritually massaged water, the essences also contain a small amount of brandy as a "vibrational preservative." Without the brandy, we are told, the vibration would quickly dissipate.

Maybe without the brandy Mapel's ideas would also dissipate. But I digress. Let's get down to the essence of the Essence.

A customer can select from a wide array of these wonder products.
There's eagle, for "soaring above earthly matters to gain perspective and clarity."

But if what you want is "support in creating abundance at all levels of one's life," then you need rabbit essence. If you have a blood-pressure issue, then buffalo essence might do the trick, at least according to one testimonial. A patient reports a remarkable drop in blood pressure from this essence which is recommended "for slowing down and getting in touch with the resonance and rhythms of the Earth."

And finally, if you need help for "facilitating initiation into the deepest, transpersonal realms of the psyche," then you need snake essence. The meaning of this claim is beyond me, but that is perhaps because I have not availed myself of the recommended five to seven drops of this concoction a day. Maybe instead of spiritual vibrations, Mr. Mapel should consider putting some authentic snake oil into his snake essence. Why? Because in two recent studies, dietary sea snake oil enhanced maze learning ability in mice. In other words, it made the mice smarter. Might be just the remedy our modern snake oil salesman needs to swallow himself.

Joe Schwarcz is director of McGill University's Office for Science and Society (Office for Science and Society).
He can be heard every Sunday from 3-4 p.m. on CJAD.
joe.schwarcz@mcgill.ca


Why are snake-oil remedies so-called?

[carla]

And remember that the Snake oil salesman can take many forms and characters.
I've heard of people who will pretend they have had Morgellons for years and pick out the most vunerable to prey off.
These people make me sick.

[Tootsie]

OH NO Carlas, now Im gonna be sick too! second that motion LOL

[Tootsie]

interesting origin of "snake oil" TCM!

I want to add dont beleive anyone who says they can "cure" morgellons. Sure some people are helped by products and some people get better or symptoms are releived but everyone is different and do not react the same to herbs and medications. There is no cure for morgellons yet. Theres just not enough information about morgellons to even call something a cure, we dont even know what it is yet.

People with integrity who have healed them selves of morgellons symptoms share FREELY what helped them (IMO)

In fact ive met people who are symptomless now but do not even know what exactly helped them get better.

People will stop at nothing to make money. I was approached by a person while I was working trying to tell me I could make 7 grand a month selling "healing water"!!!

[Keavy]

Hi guys,
Resident Snake Oil salesman here....

I agree with everything said here, and I think placebo plays a huge role in recovery with alternative and mainstream treatment alike.

Since I fell into the sodium chlorite business, I have talked to a lot of people on the phone. I have end user customers for MMS, and I have retailers who buy in bulk. Some of the end users just break my heart, they have diseases and conditions like morgs, parasites, or worse terminal illnesses like cancer, and aids.... they are terrified and at the end of their rope. Some of them call just to talk and want me to tell them it will fix them. Of course I can't do that...

A lot of the retailers are empathetic, and are decent people who feel like they got some benefit from the product, and want to "spread the word" as it were... they make a few bucks along the way, but nothing wrong with that, as long as it is done in that context.

Some retailers are just apathetic though, they never tried the product, they never tried to understand the people they sell to, and don't grasp the implications of how much damage they can do with an offhand comment.
I think there is a psychological side to any type of treatment that has to be addressed or at least acknowledged.

I'm not saying as a retailer you should offer psychological treatment , but I do think if you don't know what you are talking about you should at the very least keep your mouth shut.

I feel pretty comfortable talking about Morgellons. I have done a lot of research and talked to quite a few people who have it. I've also read this board pretty extensively now.

I feel good about selling chlorine dioxide, whether as MMS or stable O2 because I believe it has real benefit. Does it cure cancer, morgs, aids, malaria....
I don't know, all I have read is the same anecdotal evidence that everyone else has. None of my customers has given me the big EUREKA, I"M CURED.

But if it makes them feel better, then it has done it's job whether it's placebo or not.

[jonsi]

Keavy,

Are you a Snake Oil salesman? Hmmm, I thought you had "Morgellons" and were here to share experiences about what has helped you.

Personally, I would never take MMS. Sounds very toxic to me. I'd like to hear from someone that MMS works long term.

My daughter & I have used Miracle II soap for three years now & I don't sell it! I will always promote it without making a dime. It is the only soap/shampoo/body wash we use.

(I'm not comparing MMS to Miracle II soap)

itwl,
~jonsi

[tcmgpt13]

As I recall, when Keavy first joined, he stated he did not have morgellons, but was a seller of natural products including a lot of different healing clays. In fact he stated his desire to give some products (the clays I think) free plus the cost of shipping to a few with Morgellons as an experiment to see if they worked and wanted to talk to admin about that. Sounded pretty upfront. I don't know if he ever followed through with sending out the clays. I don't know if anyone had good results if he did. I know he talked about attending the support group meeting in Tampa. He doesn't have that many posts here so if anyone wants to learn even more about this member I suggest doing a search under his name. This is his third post where he says he does not have Morgellons and talks about what he sells etc.

Need a few volunteers

I don't know if what Keavy sells works, but at least he is upfront about what he is doing which some folks do not reveal when they join to sell products here. Oh, and yes, he never utters the word "cure." (Thank you Keavy.) In fact he says he does not know if MMS works or does not work as a cure for "cancer, morgs, aids, malaria...." I find it refreshingly honest that he says all he has is anecdotal testimonials that say people feel better and does not insist that they are quickly and magically "cured."

[tcmgpt13]

One of my concerns about using MMS is the effect this supplement could have on thyroid function and the endocrine system as a whole. Here's a old post about this:

MMS-miracle mineral supplement (permalink 130)

There's a lot of good discussion on Carla's MMS thread and as usual not all of us agree about its use. I think discussions which encourage all to participate and make their own decisions about what has been discussed it a good place for a forum to be.

Anyway, I agree with Kat, this is one supplement I would not try. After all I have a whole house filter to remove chlorine from my water so I am not going to add chlorine dioxide as a supplement. I feel many with Morgellons could be borderline low as far as optimal endocrine system function.