April 16th, 2009, 04:39 PM
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monika
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Junior Member | | Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 26
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Originally Posted by Sadsack  | without any doubt , indeed ..... Interesting thoughs on this are to find in forsight research and two authors that remind how historys big changes are always totally surprising and unexpected are Peterson and Taleb , this is simalar to thomas khun his sudden "paradigm shift" , what we dont expect, we dont believe and dont see comming ., that seems to be human http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wild_ca...sight_research) In foresight reearch, "wild cards" refer to low-probability, high-impact events.
Arguably the best known work in Wild Cards comes from John Petersen author of 'Out of The Blue - How to Anticipate Big Future Surprises'. Petersen's book articulates a series of events that due to their likelihood to surprise and potential for impact might be considered 'Wildcards'. He defines Wild Cards as 'Low Probability, High Impact events that, were they to occur, would severely impact the human condition'.
The idea is similar to the Black swan theory described by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2007 book The Black Swan. Black swan theory - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The Black Swan theory (in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's version) refers to a large-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare event beyond the realm of normal expectations. MY FAVORIT DESCRIPTION OF THIS BY THOMAS KUHN In The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, Kuhn argued that science does not progress via a linear accumulation of new knowledge, but undergoes periodic revolutions, also called "paradigm shifts" , in which the nature of scientific inquiry within a particular field is abruptly transformed. In general, science is broken up into three distinct stages. Prescience, which lacks a central paradigm, comes first. This is followed by "normal science", when scientists attempt to enlarge the central paradigm by "puzzle-solving". Thus, the failure of a result to conform to the paradigm is seen not as refuting the paradigm, but as the mistake of the researcher. As anomalous results build up, science reaches a crisis, at which point a new paradigm, which subsumes the old results along with the anomalous results into one framework, is accepted. This is termed revolutionary science.
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Last edited by monika; April 16th, 2009 at 04:41 PM.
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